Friday, June 22, 2007

China's Emissions Growth

A new report says that China has already surpassed the US as the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases. On a per capita basis, however, Chinese people only account for 1/8th as much as their western counterparts.

It's interesting to me that in an article like this, the environmentalist response is that yes, Beijing has to do more to curtail emissions, but "responsibility also lies in Washington and Brussels and Tokyo..." I don't think you'd ever hear a criticism of American government policy include a disclaimer that you'd also have to consider Caracas and Teheran and Pyongyang culpable.

Still, it makes you wonder if there is more that western foreign policy could do to help China manage their growth more responsibly. For example, could the US offer aid to China to pay the difference between what it costs them to build two coal-powered energy plants a week and the cost of building nuclear plants instead? Wouldn't that kind of aid go a long way in building friendlier relations and help the environment at the same time?

Here are a few more amazing stats about China's growth from the article:

"China's emissions have outpaced predictions because the economy has grown faster than expected. With construction booming, China produces an estimated 44% of the world's cement, Olivier said. And with its factories' fuel needs rising, China has been completing construction of coal-fired power plants at a rate of about two a week.

"In the next eight years, the International Energy Agency estimates, China will build as many power plants as exist today in all of the European Union countries. Birol said the West needs to find incentives to help China invest in cleaner forms of energy than coal, because when coal plants come on line, they generally last decades."

Saturday, May 26, 2007

Internet growth stats

From John C Dvorak. Amazing!

"It's actually the astonishing overall growth of the Internet that is amazing. In 1990, the total U.S. backbone throughput of the Internet was 1 terabyte, and in 1991 it doubled to 2TB. Throughput continued to double until 1996, when it jumped to 1,500TB. After that huge jump, it returned to doubling, reaching 80,000 to 140,000TB in 2002.

"This ridiculous growth rate has continued as more and more services are added to the burden. The jump in 1996 is attributable to the one-two punch of the universal popularization of the Web and the introduction of the MP3 standard and subsequent music file sharing.

"More recently, the emergence of inane video clips (YouTube and the rest) as universal entertainment has continued to slam the Net with overhead, as has large video file sharing via BitTorrent and other systems.

"Then VoIP came along, and IPTV is next. All the while, e-mail numbers are in the trillions of messages, and spam has never been more plentiful and bloated. Add blogging, vlogging, and twittering and it just gets worse.

"According to some expensive studies, the growth rate has begun to slow down to something like 50 percent per year. But that's growth on top of huge numbers. Petabytes."

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Growing Power Crunch

Where will the world's power come from? And won't the growing production and consumption of the huge rapidly developing nations overwhelm the efforts of currently "developed nations" at ecological responsibility?

From the NYT:

"In part because of these limitations, Indians are, for now, relatively conservative consumers of energy: about 600 units per capita per year, or one-fifth that of a typical American. But that will certainly increase as Indian desires reach those of the wealthy Western countries.

"A recent report by McKinsey Global Institute frothily predicted a fourfold increase in consumer spending by 2025, vaulting India, as it said, “into the premier league among the world’s consumer markets.” McKinsey forecast that India would surpass Germany as the fifth-largest market in the world.

"Driven by the increasing need for power, India has stepped up generation in recent years at the pace of about 6 percent a year. It is a pittance compared with what neighboring China adds on each year and in any case insufficient to keep up with India’s galloping demand.

"The government has promised electric connections for all — which means access to the grid, not round-the-clock power — by 2009. That is a target that does not seem plausible at current rates of power generation.

"The development of power plants, meanwhile, is constrained by a lack of access to land, fuel and water, all of which a power plant needs in large quantities. The power grid remains weak.

"What the state cannot provide efficiently, many take for themselves. The World Bank estimates that at least $4 billion in electricity is unaccounted for each year — that is to say, stolen. Transparency International estimated in 2005 that Indians paid $480 million in bribes to put in new connections or correct bills.

"The country’s energy needs are one of the government’s main arguments for a nuclear deal with the United States, which would allow India to buy reactors and fuel from the world market.

"But even if the deal goes through, it would lift nuclear power, which provides 3 percent of India’s energy, to no more than 9 percent, said Leena Srivastava, executive director of the Energy and Resources Institute, a private research group.

"Similarly, in the coming years, alternative sources of energy, like wind, are expected to double, but to no more than about 8 percent of supply.

"Coal will continue to dominate power generation, and already more than a third of India’s coal plants do not meet national emissions standards."

Monday, May 07, 2007

Catching Confucius

This from the LA Times. Those familiar with China have been aware of the spiritual interest and opportunity for Confucianism as well as other spiritual movements for many years. This one combines the endorsement of the government with good marketing.

Since the publication of her enormously popular book on the teachings of Confucius late last year, Yu Dan has been racing from college lectures to book signings, TV appearances and speaking engagements. The public can't seem to get enough of this overnight sensation who has turned dusty old Confucian teachings into a Chinese version of "Chicken Soup for the Soul."

"I never expected this," the smartly dressed 42-year-old said in a hurried interview from the back of the black Audi taking her to the airport. "In the 21st century, our value system is changing; people are faced with a lot of confusion and choices. The classics are not just fossils. They are a value system that can help us find answers to modern-day problems."

For more than 2,500 years, the Confucian doctrines of filial piety, moral righteousness and hierarchical relationships were the guiding principles of life and government in China and most of East Asia. Then the Communists came to power and Chairman Mao declared Confucianism counterrevolutionary and his Red Guards ransacked temples dedicated to the philosopher.

Today, China is charging ahead with dizzying economic growth and breathtaking social change. But many believe the world's most populous nation has lost its moral and spiritual anchor. Enter the wisdom of Kong Fuzi, or Master Kong, as Confucius is known in China — interpreted by a woman.

"I'm amazed," said Hong Huang, a cultural commentator and publisher of fashion magazines in Beijing. "Her success has a lot to do with the fact that modern China has an identity crisis and spiritual crisis. The only value system we have today is money. Everybody is looking for the Chinese meaning of life."

Thursday, May 03, 2007

Cyber Crowd Control

Here's a report of users coercing a website into altering its policy. Where will this lead?

"'Social media is something of a Pandora's box,' said Internet analyst Greg Sterling of Sterling Market Intelligence. 'Communities create deeper engagement, word of mouth and viral promotion of your content. That's how sites like MySpace and YouTube got to be so popular. The other side of that is that it's often hard to police communities. You have to be willing to tolerate certain things you wouldn't tolerate from your own employees.'"

Saturday, April 28, 2007

Look to Youth

There's a huge need for developing business leaders with practical experience and good education. While China's universities have grown rapidly, business schools lag behind, mostly because of a lack of qualified teachers. Business training is a great field for development, as noted in this LA Times article.

...MBA[s]... are highly sought after in China, whose scorching growth has left companies scrambling to fill management positions. Foreign firms complain of high turnover and poaching wars in their executive suites.

"China has a real leadership development crisis right now, mostly because of the unique circumstances of the Cultural Revolution," said Doug Guthrie, a China business expert at New York University.

Guthrie was referring to the period from 1966 to 1976, when Communist leader Mao Tse-tung closed the universities and sent the country's brightest young people to the countryside to be "reeducated." Instead of managing companies, these now 50- and 60-year-olds are toiling in factories and driving taxis.

When Rafael Pastor, chief executive of Vistage International Inc., an organization of CEOs, interviewed people to run his new office in Shanghai, he was shocked at their youth. His top candidate for the managing director's job is 39 years old.

"He's great," said Pastor, a former investment banker and executive at News Corp. "But he's only got as much experience as a 39-year-old person can have. There's no way I can find a more seasoned person."

In an effort to close this experience gap, Chinese universities such as Tsinghua are reaching out to U.S. institutions such as MIT's Sloan School of Management and USC's Marshall School of Business for help establishing programs to teach China's first generation of professionally trained business leaders. Universities have formed transpacific partnerships, sharing professors, students and curriculum.

That infusion of foreign assistance has helped boost the number of Chinese MBA programs from nine in 1991 to more than 100 today. In 2004, China graduated about 10,000 MBAs, compared with 139,000 such degrees in the U.S.

But Chinese universities, like the companies they are serving, can't expand fast enough because of a shortage of teachers, Pastor said.

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

The Much Exaggerated Death of Europe

Philip Jenkins takes a less pessimistic view of Europe's future than many current observers.

Here's a lengthy report on his new book God’s Continent: Christianity, Islam, and Europe’s Religious Crisis by Richard John Neuhaus in First Things Journal.

“Nobody can deny,” writes Jenkins, “that European nations in coming decades will have to take account of aspects of Muslim culture, or rather of the north African and Asian cultures brought by Muslim immigrants; but that is quite different from envisioning wholesale Islamization. . . . Yet matters are not so terrifying [as many contend]. While sections of European Islam in recent years have acquired a strongly militant and politicized character, we have to understand this as a response to temporary circumstances; moreover, hard-line [Islamic] approaches still command only minority support. In the longer term, the underlying pressures making for accommodation and tolerance will prove hard to resist.”

It's About Excellence

TOKYO (AP) — Toyota Motor sold more cars and trucks worldwide than General Motors in the first three months of 2007, marking the first time that Toyota has outsold GM.

Most auto analysts have predicted that Toyota will surpass GM this year as the world's largest automaker — a position the Detroit behemoth has held for 76 years. Toyota's global sales for the January-March quarter rose 9% to a record 2.35 million. GM reported last week that its global sales rose 3% to 2.26 million vehicles.

Toyota has steadily gained on GM in past few years, aided by a shift in the U.S. market away from SUVs and toward more fuel-efficient vehicles.

Toyota's U.S. sales, led by the Camry and Corolla, rose more than 12% last year and sales are increasing at a double-digit rate again this year. In March, Toyota's share of the U.S. market climbed to 16%, behind GM's 22% and Ford Motor's 17%.

In 2006, Toyota's global production surged 10% to 9.018 million vehicles, while GM and its group automakers produced 9.180 million vehicles worldwide — a gap of about 162,000.

It's no time to start popping the champagne, however, because overtaking GM is not Toyota's first priority, said Paul Nolasco, a spokesman for Toyota.

"Our goal has never been to sell the most cars in the world," Nolasco said. "We simply want to be the best in quality. After that, sales will take care of themselves."

Indeed, it is Toyota's reputation for quality and fuel efficiency that has lifted its global sales, including the popular Camry, Corolla and Prius gasoline-and-electric hybrid.

Saturday, April 14, 2007

Beijing's War of Words

This story warms the heart of any English-speaking foreigner who has lived in China. From Singapore's Today newspaper:

A campaign to correct the notoriously goofy English translations on city signs in time for next year's Olympics could mean the end for the misnomers that have confused and amused visitors for years.
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Officials are taking aim at menu items such as "Fried Crap" and "Acid Food", and slippery-when-wet signs that read: "To take notice of safe: The slippery are very crafty".
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The campaign began last year to avoid causing confusion and possible offence when visitors from around the world descend on a city that has for years featured a "Racist Park" dedicated to ethnic minorities.
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But to some, the "pubic toilets" and "harsh browns" will be missed.
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"It's too bad. They give the city a little more character," said Mr Ian McCulloch, a Briton who studies Chinese at a local university.
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"It's almost worth a walk down the street just for that."
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Officials have launched several parallel campaigns — some aim to discourage spitting and queue-jumping while others encourage smiling and other civilities — in a bid to soften a city that has its share of rough edges.
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But the authorities have pushed the language effort as much as any other, sending out camera-wielding inspectors to comb the streets in search of offenders like "Deformed Men" on handicapped restroom stalls, and "liquor heads" seen on signs banning public drinking.
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Friday, March 09, 2007

Did You Know?

Here's a presentation that will really get you thinking. We all know technology is changing rapidly, but this will shock you when you think about what it will mean for us in 15 years...

"I remixed content from David Warlick, Thomas Friedman, Ian Jukes, Ray Kurzweil and others, added some music, and came up with the following presentation."

You have to go to the website and download both the powerpoint and mp3 files to then view it on your computer.

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

More Asian Exports Coming Your Way

"Only a decade ago did scientists in the University of California's Pacific Rim Aerosol Network help discover that the pollution crossing the Pacific from Asia was worse than suspected, with millions of tons of previously undetected contaminants carried on the wind.

In fact, on any spring or summer day, almost a third of the air high over Los Angeles, San Francisco and other California cities can be traced directly to Asia, researchers said.

'More stuff starting up over there means more stuff ending up over here,' said UC Davis atmospheric scientist Steven Cliff.

Usually, dust and industrial pollutants take from five days to two weeks to cross the Pacific to California."

Monday, February 05, 2007

Internet Boom in China Is Built on Virtual Fun

Interesting observations in this New York Times article about the different users and usages of the internet in China versus the US:

"Another distinguishing feature is the youthful face of China’s online community. In the United States, roughly 70 percent of Internet users are over the age of 30; in China, it is the other way around — 70 percent of users here are under 30, according to the investment bank Morgan Stanley.

Because few people in China have credit cards or trust the Internet for financial transactions, e-commerce is emerging slowly. But instant messaging and game-playing are major obsessions, now central to Chinese culture. So is social networking, a natural fit in a country full of young people without siblings. Tencent combines aspects of the social networking site MySpace, the video sharing site YouTube and the online virtual world of Second Life.

“They have what I call the largest virtual park in China,” said Richard Ji, an analyst at Morgan Stanley. “And in China, the No. 1 priority for Internet users is entertainment; in the U.S., it’s information. That’s why Google is dominant in the U.S., but Tencent rules China.”"

Saturday, January 27, 2007

Management is All About Talent Coaching!

From Tom Peters' blog, echoing management principles Marcus Buckingham has written:

"Earlier this month I had a bit of a rant about 'Servant Leadership.' The gist of it was: Military Officers and Business Leaders have the same role ... to ensure that all members of the value-creating community are the best they can be. That's an enabling service worth paying for. Today, as a leader, you serve those who choose to bring their talent to you/your organisation. They decide if you are doing a good job or not. They decide if you are worth your management package. They choose to stay or go. They determine if you/the company will succeed or not. Control ... forget it!

Some of my clients/colleagues over here think I've gone soft. Quite the contrary, actually. I think servant leadership is much harder than command & control/micromanagement/authoritarianism. Why bother taking the harder route? Here's the disquieting logic—if you think I'm wrong, please tell me:

Traditional Command & Control logic is based on the world as it used to be, rational, predictable, and stable. A world where well-defined processes produced predictably good results, and refining processes produced better results. It was a world where there was little scope for discretionary human value added to the execution of process. As a consequence, engaging people was unnecessary in a management culture conceived in the blast furnaces and assembly lines of the 19th Century. Unfortunately, relative to the social and technological changes in the last century, little has changed in management culture.

Future winners are turning the old logic on its head by making the value creators the heroes. (Think sports teams!) The future losers are those companies where doing well is about getting out of a customer value creation role and into management.

I'd propose that our role as managers is to ensure that each member of our value creating (read org successes ensuring) community is contributing to the maximum of their potential. If we are doing anything other than that, we should STOP IT NOW or fire ourselves for dereliction of duty. We are no longer process policemen but talent coaches. It's 100% a trust thing. We're in BIG trouble.

Thursday, January 04, 2007

8 Basics of Excellence

On the 25th anniversary of his revolutionary book, Tom Peters reminds us of the eight basics of excellence. Though embraced in principle by many, they are still rare to find in practice. This year I want to rededicate myself to building a "people-obsessed" organization.

1. A Bias for Action. Call it 'implementation.' Call it 'execution.' It's the heart of both those key ideas. Too much talk, too little do. Problem-opportunity #1, 1982. Problem-opportunity #1, 2007. And a beast as one grows—and acquires.

2. Close to the Customer. Call it 'loyalty' or 'customer intimacy' or (God help us) 'customer-centric organization.' Though I'd move it down to #3 today (people #2), it's as fresh as ever and honored in the breach—again, particularly as giantism emerges. Come hell and/or high water, get close-as-hell to that customer, listen to that customer, and love up that customer for all you're worth.

3. Autonomy and Entrepreneurship. This was, more or less, our innovation piece. Let 1,000 flowers bloom—and then turn it over to Darwin. No autonomy, no accountability; no autonomy, no insane investment in new stuff.

4. Productivity Through People. Obvious—1982. Obvious—2007. But truly 'people-obsessed companies' ('talent-obsessed' today) are still rare as can be—we keep trotting out GE's people development process for a reason—we can't think of anyone else among the giants.

5. Hands On, Value-Driven. MBWA/Managing By Wandering Around (circa 1982 and HP). MBWA today!! Absent then. Absent now. Run a place by values-first leadership? Then. Now. Rare.

6. Stick to the Knitting. Misunderstood in '82. We bought Richard Rumelt's (UCLA) act—and I still do. He called the winning approach 'related diversification.' It ain't about sticking with a pat hand, however 'excellent' today—it is about hanging in with stuff you understand. Still a good idea—just ask the private equity boys (and girls), circa 2006.

7. Simple Form, Lean Staff. We pleaded for this in 1982, but we were not aggressive enough. And, of course, there were no Internet-run companies and no outsourcing. Still, the basic idea is fresh as a daisy—and rare as apple blossoms in January in Boston. (Whoops.)

8. Simultaneous Loose-Tight Properties. Confusing to some, gospel to a few (Bob Stone—the exec in charge of re-inventing government in the 90s, who accomplished a helluva lot more than most people realize). Idea: Stick with a few key values ... then let her rip! ("Change anything not 'below the waterline'" was the way W.L. Gore founder Bill Gore put it to us—and it's still working for his firm today. (Or I hope it is—I'm depending on GORE-TEX® when I go hiking in New Zealand at the end of this month.)

Of course there are a jillion ways to say any of these—but their simplicity was the trick. I could as easily give a speech covering these exact ideas with these exact words today as 25 years ago. For instance, when I recently learned that Starbucks founder Howard Schultz visits 25 stores per week and that former Goldman Sachs boss Hank Paulson used to call 70 clients right after New Year's just to "check in," I said—"MBWA then for the best, MBWA now for the best." (Hint: I will be giving some speeches this year with the so-called "eight basics" as my exact outline. Sure my increasingly noisy "women's stuff" will be fit into "close to the customer" and "productivity through people," but the basic outline will be familiar.)

Monday, November 13, 2006

Web 3.0

Here's a NY Times article that's pretty interesting. Not only connecting pages on the web, but studying them and drawing relationships and conclusions about human knowledge.

"From the billions of documents that form the World Wide Web and the links that weave them together, computer scientists and a growing collection of start-up companies are finding new ways to mine human intelligence.

Their goal is to add a layer of meaning on top of the existing Web that would make it less of a catalog and more of a guide — and even provide the foundation for systems that can reason in a human fashion. "

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Those Big Emitters!

Uh oh...the Chinese are coming!

"China will surpass the United States in 2009, nearly a decade ahead of previous predictions, as the biggest emitter of the main gas linked to global warming, the International Energy Agency has concluded in a report to be released Tuesday.

China’s rise, fueled heavily by coal, is particularly troubling to climate scientists because as a developing country, China is exempt from the Kyoto Protocol’s requirements for reductions in emissions of global warming gases. Unregulated emissions from China, India and other developing countries are likely to account for most of the global increase in carbon dioxide emissions over the next quarter-century."

Sunday, October 22, 2006

The Average American: 1967 and Today

Here are stats showing the material prosperity of Americans over the past 40 years. Yet they don't feel as well off as their parents. Why? One reason is we tend to compare ourselves with those who have more, not with those who have less, and those who have more nowadays have a lot more.

"Mr. and Mrs. Median's $46,326 in annual income is 32% more than their mid-'60s counterparts, even when adjusted for inflation, and 13% more than those at the median in the economic boom year of 1985. And thanks to ballooning real estate values, average household net worth has increased even faster. The typical American household has a net worth of $465,970, up 83% from 1965, 60% from 1985 and 35% from 1995.

Throw in the low inflation of the past 20 years, a deregulated airline industry that's made travel much cheaper, plus technological progress that's provided the middle class with not only better cars and televisions, but every gadget from DVD players to iPods, all at lower and lower prices, and it's obvious that Mr. and Mrs. Median are living the life of Riley compared to their parents and grandparents. "

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Pardon the Dust: Beijing Puts Its Games Face On

"For China, the world's most populous nation, it should be a giant coming-out party, as the 1964 Summer Olympics was for Japan and the 1988 Summer Games were for South Korea. For Beijing, the countdown to Aug. 8, 2008, has increased the already frenetic pace of transformation in this city of 15.3 million people and seemingly as many construction sites."

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

In China, Churches Challenge the Rules

I think we will see more and more individuals and groups like these churches who will challenge the Chinese government on legal grounds, following regulations while agitating for more rights.

"a growing number of congregations that began life as house churches -- unauthorized places of worship set up in private, often dilapidated homes -- have recently registered with the government, while continuing to spurn the rules of the official Protestant church in China. Like so many institutions in China, these churches now hover in a sort of legal netherworld."