How Long Will America Lead the World?

Fareed Zakaria of Newsweek regularly writes insightful commentary. This brilliant article reviews tons of relevant statistics and opinions of leaders and comes to the conclusion that what America is best at is adapting, and if it remains scared about competition and flexible in its response, it will remain the most prosperous society on earth.

"History has arrived in the form of 'Three Billion New Capitalists,' as Clyde Prestowitz's recent book puts it, people from countries like China, India and the former Soviet Union, which all once scorned the global market economy but are now enthusiastic and increasingly sophisticated participants in it. They are poorer, hungrier and in some cases well trained, and will inevitably compete with Americans and America for a slice of the pie. A Goldman Sachs study concludes that by 2045, China will be the largest economy in the world, replacing the United States.

It is not just writers like Prestowitz who are sounding alarms. Jeffrey Immelt, CEO of GE, reflects on the growing competence and cost advantage of countries like China and even Mexico and says, 'It's unclear how many manufacturers will choose to keep their businesses in the United States.' Intel's Andy Grove is more blunt. 'America ... [is going] down the tubes,' he says, 'and the worst part is nobody knows it. They're all in denial, patting themselves on the back, as the Titanic heads for the iceberg full speed ahead.'

....

The national academies' report points out that China and India combined graduate 950,000 engineers every year, compared with 70,000 in America; that for the cost of one chemist or engineer in the U.S. a company could hire five chemists in China or 11 engineers in India; that of the 120 $1 billion-plus chemical plants being built around the world one is in the United States and 50 are in China.

There are some who see the decline of science and technology as part of a larger cultural decay. A country that once adhered to a Puritan ethic of delayed gratification has become one that revels in instant pleasures. We're losing interest in the basics—math, manufacturing, hard work, savings—and becoming a postindustrial society that specializes in consumption and leisure. "More people will graduate in the United States in 2006 with sports-exercise degrees than electrical-engineering degrees," says Immelt. "So, if we want to be the massage capital of the world, we're well on our way."

There is a puzzle in all this, however, which is that these trends and features have been around for a while, and they do not seem to have had an impact—so far at least—on the bottom line, which is GDP growth. Over the past 20 years, America's growth rate has averaged just over 3 percent, a full percentage point higher than that of Germany and France. (Japan averaged 2.3 percent over the same period.) Productivity growth, the elixir of modern economics, has been over 2.5 percent for a decade now, again a full percentage point higher than the European average. In 1980, the United States made up 22 percent of world output; today that has risen to 29 percent. The U.S. is currently ranked the second most competitive economy in the world (by the World Economic Forum), and is first in technology and innovation, first in technological readiness, first in company spending for research and technology and first in the quality of its research institutions. China does not come within 30 countries of the U.S. on any of these points, and India breaks the top 10 on only one count: the availability of scientists and engineers. In virtually every sector that advanced industrial countries participate in, U.S. firms lead the world in productivity and profits."

The situation with regard to higher education is even more dramatic. A new report, "The Future of European Universities," from the London-based Center for European Reform, points out that of the world's 20 top universities, 18 are American. The U.S. invests 2.6 percent of its GDP on higher education, compared with 1.2 percent in Europe and 1.1 percent in Japan. The situation in the sciences is particularly striking. A list of where the world's 1,000 best computer scientists were educated shows that the top 10 schools were all American. Our spending on R&D remains higher than Europe's, and our collaborations between business and educational institutions are unmatched anywhere in the world. America remains by far the most attractive destination for students, taking 30 percent of the total number of foreign students globally. These advantages will not be erased easily because the structure of European and Japanese universities—mostly state-run bureaucracies—is unlikely to change. And while China and India are creating new institutions, it is not that easy to create a world-class university out of whole cloth in a few decades.

The American economy is also particularly good at taking technology and turning it into a product that people will buy. An unusual combination of an entrepreneurial culture, a permissive legal system and flexible capital markets all contribute to a business culture that rewards risk. This means that technology is quickly converted into some profitable application.

....

And then there are the demographics. The United States is the only industrialized country that will not experience a work-force or population loss in the coming decades, thanks to immigration. Germany and Japan are expected to see their populations drop by 5 and 12 percent, respectively, between now and 2050. China will also face a demographic crunch. By 2040, it will have a larger percentage of elderly people than the United States. The one-child policy has led to something that China's demographers call the "4-2-1 problem"— four grandparents and two parents will have to be supported by one worker.

How China Is Rivaling Silicon Valley

A new kind of Chinese company - blending western management experience with local skill.

Great opportunities for entrpreneurs in China!

"Liu, 65, founded Augmentum three years ago after an illustrious career as an IBM executive and later a honcho at Acer and an Asian semiconductor company. China's development as a power in software led him to believe that it would be possible for homegrown talent to pull off the tough stuff—at those enticing China costs. Starting monthly salaries at Augmentum for the top college graduates he recruits are about 3,000 yuan (less than $400). It's maybe a tenth of what a U.S. engineer gets, but for many in China it's a dream wage. 'When I went to high school, I would imagine that my job would pay 2,000 yuan [annually],' Augmentum software manager Alden Xu says. 'Now I make many times more.' Augmentum had 10,000 applicants for the 550 jobs it wanted to fill this year.

After a lifetime of jumping through hoops in the rigid Chinese educational system, Augmentum's engineers appreciate that Lui trains them to think creatively and collaboratively. With discipline, of course. Everyone at Augmentum is expected to arrive at 8:30 a.m., and it's common to stay until 11 p.m. The principles of protecting intellectual property are stressed, as Liu wants to be able to assure his customers that their trade secrets are safe."

Blowing Hot and Cold

It certainly seems from reading any news accounts that Global Warming is an accepted fact. But is it actually fact, or politically correct reporting? I was amazed recently to read that the Ozone Hole over Antarctica will actually close in the next few years!

"The New York Times in 1895 predicted widespread global cooling. In 1924, the paper reported 'Signs of New Ice Age.' But in 1933, 1952, 1959, and 1969, the Times declared global warming. Then in 1974 and 1975, the Times decided that the new ice age was coming, with catastrophic consequences: 'the facts of the present climate change are such that the most optimistic experts would assign near certainty to major crop failure in a decade' leading to 'mass deaths by starvation and probably in anarchy and violence.'

The Washington Post announced a 'New Ice Age' in 1970, and, in 1974, Fortune agreed, touting a scientist who predicted that a billion people would die from starvation caused by global cooling. Time magazine declared global warming in 1939, global cooling in 1974, and currently believes in global warming."

Goooooal-obalization!

Interesting observation on international appeal of soccer/football. Of American sports, only basketball has international appeal. And Americans don't follow or understand the interest in the World Cup. 1 in 5 people worldwide watched the World Cup Final match in 2002, but only 1 in 75 Americans did.

One other aspect of World Cup - it is not just about soccer, it is also about nationalism. In that way, it is similar to the Olympics. There are the individual stars, and there are the national identities.

"Soccer, by contrast, is the one form of mass global culture that is not made in America. Bring together a Swede, a Nigerian and a Korean teenager and almost all they are likely to have in common is American culture. They will talk about the latest Hollywood blockbuster, what Ben and Angelina are up to and the latest American music. And, of course, if they can communicate at all, it will be in English.

Soccer will be the other thing they have in common. And they will talk about the recent Barcelona-Arsenal match and the World Cup. Most American teenagers would be left out of the conversation when talk turned to sports."

Is Qatar the Next Dubai?

I've been noticing recently all the newspaper ads for Dubai as a resort destination, and for the first time it hit me - the middle east is a viable holiday destination from Asia.

It's only 4 hours time difference from Beijing/Hong Kong/Singapore. The flights and prices are not that expensive.

With a rapidly developing middle class in China, developers are scrambling for the Chinese leisure dollars. Huge casino developments in Macau and Singapore, airport and hotel expansion in Bangkok, Disneyland in Hong Kong.

The Chinese tourists are coming! And the Middle East wants them!

"According to the Qatar Tourism Authority, more than 100 buildings and towers are going up in Doha, whose modest skyline is currently punctuated by about two dozen high-rises. Cranes fill the hot sky. Skeletal hotels, resorts and financial centers ring Doha Bay. And from every corner, a symphony of earth-moving equipment and power tools hums the theme of one of the world's richest countries (as measured by gross domestic product per capita) striving to become a world-class business and leisure center."

Pakistan Bans "DaVinci Code"

Why is it that "non-Christian" countries like Pakistan are more concerned about offending Christians than "Christian" countries like the US?

It is obviously not about religious ideology or about the political clout of the audience. I believe it is a cultural value that esteems the good of the communnity over the freedom of the individual.

"Pakistan on Saturday banned cinemas from showing 'The Da Vinci Code' because it contained what officials called blasphemous material about Jesus.

Although the film has not been screened in any theater in mostly-Muslim Pakistan, authorities decided to ban it out of respect for the feelings of the country's minority Christians."

Online Throngs Impose a Stern Morality in China

I find this fascintating.

First, because Chinese people have a lot of anger bottled up inside without many acceptable ways to let it out. It is common to see arguments and fights on the streets in China. It is a scary situation, and now the internet is providing an avenue for them to vent their anger.

Two, because they care about justice but are also hindered by cultural norms which say "It is not my business," and legal norms which say the government decides what is right and wrong.

Third, because it shows the power of peer pressure or corporate culture, which can be used in either a constructive or destructive way.

"It began with an impassioned, 5,000-word letter on one of the country's most popular Internet bulletin boards from a husband denouncing a college student he suspected of having an affair with his wife. Immediately, hundreds joined in the attack.

'Let's use our keyboard and mouse in our hands as weapons,' one person wrote, 'to chop off the heads of these adulterers, to pay for the sacrifice of the husband.'

Within days, the hundreds had grown to thousands, and then tens of thousands, with total strangers forming teams that hunted down the student, hounded him out of his university and caused his family to barricade themselves inside their home.

It was just the latest example of a growing phenomenon the Chinese call Internet hunting, in which morality lessons are administered by online throngs and where anonymous Web users come together to investigate others and mete out punishment for offenses real and imagined."

Why the Pentagon keeps overestimating the Chinese army

Inside the so-called Chinese military buildup. Doesn't look so threatening when you get a closer look.

"the looming Chinese threat is the explicit justification for all the big-ticket weapons systems that have nothing to do with fighting terrorists or insurgents."

World's Largest Economies

What do you notice about this list? How about the huge gap between #1 and the rest? And the large gap between #2 and the rest?

"Past imperfect

When China revised its 2004 GDP numbers last year, it bumped Italy as the sixth-largest economy. China has since risen to No. 4.

(2004 GDP, in trillions)

U.S. $11.7
Japan 4.6
Germany 2.8
Britain 2.1
France 2.0
China 1.9
Italy 1.7
Spain 1.0
Canada 0.99
Mexico 0.68


Source: International Monetary Fund"

Give or Take a Quarter Trillion

It's going to be awhile before there is a standardized measure of economics in China - as it will be awhile before many other things are standardized in the huge country.

"Late last year, China proclaimed itself the world's sixth-largest economy, edging out Italy. That proud moment wasn't triggered by surging exports of textiles, toys and cellphones. The government simply made a 'statistical revision,' boosting its 2004 gross domestic product by $278 billion, a sum larger than the entire economy of Austria.

That startling announcement, boosting the previous year's GDP in one stroke by 16% to nearly $2 trillion, was a reminder of just how unreliable China's economic numbers can be."

Illegal Immigrants in US

Now called "undocumented workers."

Wow, there are 3 times as many of them in the US as the entire population of the country I live in!

"the estimated 11.5 million undocumented workers in the United States."

The New Louvre

Local products become global products which have local impact around the globe.

Dan Brown's book has been a marketing success for the Louvre museum in Paris, where attendance is up 25% in the past three years. This has got to make the French wince - pop culture bringing in hordes of tourists (a French word!).

Yet some, like the Louvre's director, are aggresively taking advantage of the opportunities for global entrepreneurship (how could the French have even invented that word?)

"Unlike past directors, Loyrette has aggressively sought funding from private sources to augment the museum's resources. In April, he announced the formation of a partnership between the Louvre and the High Museum of Art in Atlanta. Between 2006 and 2009, the Louvre will lend the High enough art for three special exhibitions, including masterpieces by Raphael and Nicolas Poussin.

Meanwhile, U.S. sponsors of the exhibitions — including Delta, UPS and Coca-Cola — have pledged $6.4 million for refurbishments to the Louvre's collection of 18th century French furniture.

In 2002, Loyrette welcomed the founding of the American Friends of the Louvre, a New York-based nonprofit organization whose mission is to support the museum financially, strengthen French-American cultural ties and improve how the museum addresses the needs of visitors from the U.S. Its current initiatives include English translations of the museum's Web database and installation of panels describing key artworks in English and Spanish.

The society is a new concept at the Louvre, although a similar group has long been active at Versailles. 'It never occurred to the Louvre before, but Loyrette is shaking things up,' said Christopher Forbes, head of the board of directors of the American Friends of the Louvre. 'He represents a new generation of directors, plugged into what's happening at museums worldwide.'"

Global Economic Boom

This article cites an amazing statistic:

"Of 60 nations tracked by investment firm Bridgewater Associates, not one is in recession — the first time that has been true since 1969.

They go on to analyze:

"'This is the first recovery where developing economies are playing a dominant role,' said James Paulsen, chief strategist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis, which manages money for big investors such as pension funds.

"The trend is being driven by free trade, which has created millions of jobs in emerging nations in recent years, fueling stunning new wealth in those countries."

Later making another amazing observation:

"The breakaway growth of the developing world is why the global economy overall is on track to post its fourth straight year of 4%-plus expansion, the IMF estimates. The last such streak was in the early 1970s."

This after noting that the developed world is "lagging" in its growth at 3%, while the developing world is growing phenomenally at nearly 7%.

Even though it seems like most of the news in the world is bad, and most of the leaders in the world are poor, somebody must be doing something right for this kind of broad stability and extended growth.

Draft Hollywood

The writer of this article in the LA Times is calling on more pro-American propaganda, and I heartily agree with him.

One of the great aspects of America and its Christian roots, is the demand that we examine our own sins before we judge others. The American culture supports lots of diversity in opinion and lots of self-criticism.

But we also need reminding of what is good about American culture and what is bad in those who want to destroy America and what it stands for.

The US government is not good at that, and Hollywood is great at it. Why? The government uses words and actions. Hollywood uses stories, which are emotionally powerful.

Why can't we get the opinion-shapers involved in promoting a more inspiring vision of what America was conceived and birthed as, and what it still aspires to be? A defender of freedom, a help for the oppressed, a force for justice and equality and opportunity.

By the way, I like this writer's term for the alternative in today's world: islamo-fascism. They are intolerant, vicious, and need to be stopped.

"the distinctly American message that it's not bloodlines but national creeds that make a people, and that while even so great a creed as ours can't guarantee the decency of individuals, evil creeds surely sweep them up into destructive madness and therefore must be opposed."

Google China Leader Speaks

This article reveals a very passionate and idealistic Chinese entrepreneur who sees the power of the internet changing peoples' lives, and society, in China.

However, they are not necessarily the kind of changes Americans would imagine.

Which reminds us that what we want for others, and what we think is best for them, is not always the same as what they want for themselves, and may not be the best solution for their situation.

"But as Lee and I talked about how the Internet was transforming China, he offered one opinion that seemed telling: the Chinese students he meets and employs, Lee said, do not hunger for democracy. 'People are actually quite free to talk about the subject,' he added, meaning democracy and human rights in China. 'I don't think they care that much. I think people would say: 'Hey, U.S. democracy, that's a good form of government. Chinese government, good and stable, that's a good form of government. Whatever, as long as I get to go to my favorite Web site, see my friends, live happily.' ' Certainly, he said, the idea of personal expression, of speaking out publicly, had become vastly more popular among young Chinese as the Internet had grown and as blogging and online chat had become widespread. 'But I don't think of this as a political statement at all,' Lee said. 'I think it's more people finding that they can express themselves and be heard, and they love to keep doing that.'"

Income Tax Day

Just completed my annual income tax filing ritual.

Time this year to complete all the forms: 9 mins 19 secs

I did it by phone in Singapore. What a country!

See, all I have to do is key in the amount of income I have and claim the deductions for my wife and two children. Then they do the rest! It took me a few extra minutes cause I was exploring other options on the phone which they politely informed me "I'm sorry, that option is not available to you."

In a few months they will tell me how much money I owe, and they will automatically start deducting it from my bank account in monthly installments. In fact, based on previous years, they have already estimated how much I will owe, and have started to deduct it. Later, they'll make the specific adjustments and inform me.

To show it is a government that understands its residents, the deduction for my spouse is compassionately called "wife relief."

China's Clash of Cultures in Cyberspace

Is there a "carefree digital generation" coming of age in China? There are certainly fewer boundaries in peoples' minds about what they are entitled to talk about.

"But in today's China, the freedom to speak one's mind is increasing, especially in cyberspace. More than 110 million Chinese surf the Internet, and an estimated 20 million have become registered bloggers, said Fang Xingdong, founder and chief executive of Beijing-based Boke.com, which boasts 8 million bloggers since it went online in 2002."

Shanghai Vanishing

This article presents a snapshot of the changes taking place in China's most international city. For Westerners, it is hard to comprehend the pace and extent of change going on in Third World cities. In China, cities seem to transform every 3-5 years.

"The reason you must come to Shanghai now, if cities remotely interest you, is that the work here not only constitutes one of the world’s great urban transformations, it also involves one of history’s great disappearing acts. An old city of organic communities, with intimate, walk-up buildings and extraordinarily rich street life, is being replaced, almost in the blink of an eye, by a new city of expensive high-rises, underground parking garages, and lifestyles based on sheltered, closed-door individualism."

Cartoon Body Count

Here is a website that tries to track the deaths and injuries resulting from Muslim attacks over the Danish Muhammad cartoons

"Total Deaths: 139
Total Injured: 823"

When I find a website tracking Christians' murderous rampages following cartoons of Jesus, I'll let you know.

What Does Globalization Look Like?

Sent by my friend Tom -

Question: What is the truest definition of Globalization?

Answer: Princess Diana's death.

Question: How come?

Answer: An English princess

with an Egyptian boyfriend

crashes in a French tunnel,

driving a German car

with a Dutch engine,

driven by a Belgian who was drunk

on Scottish whisky, (check the bottle before you change the spelling)

followed closely by Italian Paparazzi,

on Japanese motorcycles;

treated by an American doctor,

using Brazilian medicines.

This is sent to you by an American,

using Bill Gate's technology,

and you're probably reading this on your computer,

that use Taiwanese chips,

and a Korean monitor,

assembled by Bangladeshi workers

in a Singapore plant,

transported by Indian lorry-drivers,

hijacked by Indonesians,

unloaded by Sicilian longshoremen,

and trucked to you by Mexican illegals.....

That, my friends, is Globalization.