From John C Dvorak. Amazing!
"It's actually the astonishing overall growth of the Internet that is amazing. In 1990, the total U.S. backbone throughput of the Internet was 1 terabyte, and in 1991 it doubled to 2TB. Throughput continued to double until 1996, when it jumped to 1,500TB. After that huge jump, it returned to doubling, reaching 80,000 to 140,000TB in 2002.
"This ridiculous growth rate has continued as more and more services are added to the burden. The jump in 1996 is attributable to the one-two punch of the universal popularization of the Web and the introduction of the MP3 standard and subsequent music file sharing.
"More recently, the emergence of inane video clips (YouTube and the rest) as universal entertainment has continued to slam the Net with overhead, as has large video file sharing via BitTorrent and other systems.
"Then VoIP came along, and IPTV is next. All the while, e-mail numbers are in the trillions of messages, and spam has never been more plentiful and bloated. Add blogging, vlogging, and twittering and it just gets worse.
"According to some expensive studies, the growth rate has begun to slow down to something like 50 percent per year. But that's growth on top of huge numbers. Petabytes."
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Growing Power Crunch
Where will the world's power come from? And won't the growing production and consumption of the huge rapidly developing nations overwhelm the efforts of currently "developed nations" at ecological responsibility?
From the NYT:
"In part because of these limitations, Indians are, for now, relatively conservative consumers of energy: about 600 units per capita per year, or one-fifth that of a typical American. But that will certainly increase as Indian desires reach those of the wealthy Western countries.
"A recent report by McKinsey Global Institute frothily predicted a fourfold increase in consumer spending by 2025, vaulting India, as it said, “into the premier league among the world’s consumer markets.” McKinsey forecast that India would surpass Germany as the fifth-largest market in the world.
"Driven by the increasing need for power, India has stepped up generation in recent years at the pace of about 6 percent a year. It is a pittance compared with what neighboring China adds on each year and in any case insufficient to keep up with India’s galloping demand.
"The government has promised electric connections for all — which means access to the grid, not round-the-clock power — by 2009. That is a target that does not seem plausible at current rates of power generation.
"The development of power plants, meanwhile, is constrained by a lack of access to land, fuel and water, all of which a power plant needs in large quantities. The power grid remains weak.
"What the state cannot provide efficiently, many take for themselves. The World Bank estimates that at least $4 billion in electricity is unaccounted for each year — that is to say, stolen. Transparency International estimated in 2005 that Indians paid $480 million in bribes to put in new connections or correct bills.
"The country’s energy needs are one of the government’s main arguments for a nuclear deal with the United States, which would allow India to buy reactors and fuel from the world market.
"But even if the deal goes through, it would lift nuclear power, which provides 3 percent of India’s energy, to no more than 9 percent, said Leena Srivastava, executive director of the Energy and Resources Institute, a private research group.
"Similarly, in the coming years, alternative sources of energy, like wind, are expected to double, but to no more than about 8 percent of supply.
"Coal will continue to dominate power generation, and already more than a third of India’s coal plants do not meet national emissions standards."
From the NYT:
"In part because of these limitations, Indians are, for now, relatively conservative consumers of energy: about 600 units per capita per year, or one-fifth that of a typical American. But that will certainly increase as Indian desires reach those of the wealthy Western countries.
"A recent report by McKinsey Global Institute frothily predicted a fourfold increase in consumer spending by 2025, vaulting India, as it said, “into the premier league among the world’s consumer markets.” McKinsey forecast that India would surpass Germany as the fifth-largest market in the world.
"Driven by the increasing need for power, India has stepped up generation in recent years at the pace of about 6 percent a year. It is a pittance compared with what neighboring China adds on each year and in any case insufficient to keep up with India’s galloping demand.
"The government has promised electric connections for all — which means access to the grid, not round-the-clock power — by 2009. That is a target that does not seem plausible at current rates of power generation.
"The development of power plants, meanwhile, is constrained by a lack of access to land, fuel and water, all of which a power plant needs in large quantities. The power grid remains weak.
"What the state cannot provide efficiently, many take for themselves. The World Bank estimates that at least $4 billion in electricity is unaccounted for each year — that is to say, stolen. Transparency International estimated in 2005 that Indians paid $480 million in bribes to put in new connections or correct bills.
"The country’s energy needs are one of the government’s main arguments for a nuclear deal with the United States, which would allow India to buy reactors and fuel from the world market.
"But even if the deal goes through, it would lift nuclear power, which provides 3 percent of India’s energy, to no more than 9 percent, said Leena Srivastava, executive director of the Energy and Resources Institute, a private research group.
"Similarly, in the coming years, alternative sources of energy, like wind, are expected to double, but to no more than about 8 percent of supply.
"Coal will continue to dominate power generation, and already more than a third of India’s coal plants do not meet national emissions standards."
Monday, May 07, 2007
Catching Confucius
This from the LA Times. Those familiar with China have been aware of the spiritual interest and opportunity for Confucianism as well as other spiritual movements for many years. This one combines the endorsement of the government with good marketing.
Since the publication of her enormously popular book on the teachings of Confucius late last year, Yu Dan has been racing from college lectures to book signings, TV appearances and speaking engagements. The public can't seem to get enough of this overnight sensation who has turned dusty old Confucian teachings into a Chinese version of "Chicken Soup for the Soul."
"I never expected this," the smartly dressed 42-year-old said in a hurried interview from the back of the black Audi taking her to the airport. "In the 21st century, our value system is changing; people are faced with a lot of confusion and choices. The classics are not just fossils. They are a value system that can help us find answers to modern-day problems."
For more than 2,500 years, the Confucian doctrines of filial piety, moral righteousness and hierarchical relationships were the guiding principles of life and government in China and most of East Asia. Then the Communists came to power and Chairman Mao declared Confucianism counterrevolutionary and his Red Guards ransacked temples dedicated to the philosopher.
Today, China is charging ahead with dizzying economic growth and breathtaking social change. But many believe the world's most populous nation has lost its moral and spiritual anchor. Enter the wisdom of Kong Fuzi, or Master Kong, as Confucius is known in China — interpreted by a woman.
"I'm amazed," said Hong Huang, a cultural commentator and publisher of fashion magazines in Beijing. "Her success has a lot to do with the fact that modern China has an identity crisis and spiritual crisis. The only value system we have today is money. Everybody is looking for the Chinese meaning of life."
Since the publication of her enormously popular book on the teachings of Confucius late last year, Yu Dan has been racing from college lectures to book signings, TV appearances and speaking engagements. The public can't seem to get enough of this overnight sensation who has turned dusty old Confucian teachings into a Chinese version of "Chicken Soup for the Soul."
"I never expected this," the smartly dressed 42-year-old said in a hurried interview from the back of the black Audi taking her to the airport. "In the 21st century, our value system is changing; people are faced with a lot of confusion and choices. The classics are not just fossils. They are a value system that can help us find answers to modern-day problems."
For more than 2,500 years, the Confucian doctrines of filial piety, moral righteousness and hierarchical relationships were the guiding principles of life and government in China and most of East Asia. Then the Communists came to power and Chairman Mao declared Confucianism counterrevolutionary and his Red Guards ransacked temples dedicated to the philosopher.
Today, China is charging ahead with dizzying economic growth and breathtaking social change. But many believe the world's most populous nation has lost its moral and spiritual anchor. Enter the wisdom of Kong Fuzi, or Master Kong, as Confucius is known in China — interpreted by a woman.
"I'm amazed," said Hong Huang, a cultural commentator and publisher of fashion magazines in Beijing. "Her success has a lot to do with the fact that modern China has an identity crisis and spiritual crisis. The only value system we have today is money. Everybody is looking for the Chinese meaning of life."
Thursday, May 03, 2007
Cyber Crowd Control
Here's a report of users coercing a website into altering its policy. Where will this lead?
"'Social media is something of a Pandora's box,' said Internet analyst Greg Sterling of Sterling Market Intelligence. 'Communities create deeper engagement, word of mouth and viral promotion of your content. That's how sites like MySpace and YouTube got to be so popular. The other side of that is that it's often hard to police communities. You have to be willing to tolerate certain things you wouldn't tolerate from your own employees.'"
"'Social media is something of a Pandora's box,' said Internet analyst Greg Sterling of Sterling Market Intelligence. 'Communities create deeper engagement, word of mouth and viral promotion of your content. That's how sites like MySpace and YouTube got to be so popular. The other side of that is that it's often hard to police communities. You have to be willing to tolerate certain things you wouldn't tolerate from your own employees.'"
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