Realistic Figures for China's Growth

A respected economist points out in this NY Times article how China's growth figures are wildly exaggerated. The point is not to discount China's growth, but to realize that even at a relatively fast pace, it will take a century to catch up with the US economy.

Using those numbers as a guide, if we consider China’s actual electrical use, which is relatively easy to measure, and do a little math, we come up with this estimate: The G.D.P. in China has been growing somewhere between 4.5 percent (using the average for a rapidly growing country) to 6 percent a year (using the highest rate for Japan), not at the 10 percent rate claimed in official statistics.

The official statistic for China’s overall growth rate is best regarded as an approximate growth rate of the economy of its cities.